Canada -  New Brunswick

Overview:

The New Brunswick lodging market is driven largely by activities within the mining and forestry sectors. In 2015, according to RBC the province realized healthier GDP growth of 1.9% following on negative growth of 0.3% in 2014. Stronger forestry exports brought on by the low Canadian dollar and a healthier housing industry in the United States contributed to the economic growth in the province. As the growth in output within the forestry sector will be offset by the shrinking mining industry, RBC projects flat GDP growth for the province in 2016 with marginal growth of 0.5% projected for 2017.

In 2015, the New Brunswick lodging market benefited from an increase in tourism demand as a result of the low Canadian dollar, leading to a RevPAR of $65.29, up 4.5% over the 2014 level. In the 2015 HVI report, the per-room value of the New Brunswick lodging market was projected to increase by 3.0% in 2015, but it actually increased at a healthier rate of 5.4% to $73,152 with the stronger year-end performance of the market.

In 2016, the New Brunswick lodging market is projected to realize record-breaking demand growth of 6.0% because of the leisure demand being induced by the low Canadian dollar. Consequently, the RevPAR is projected to grow 7.1% to $69.95 that year. With the opening of 103-room Hampton Inn & Suites Fredericton, the market-wide room supply is expected to increase by 1.0%. The per-room value is projected at $81,324 for 2016, up 11.2% over the level achieved in 2015.

Over the next four years, approximately 540 rooms will be added in the market. In this period, the province-wide per-room value is projected to see continuous growth, reaching $86,426 in 2019. Even with this improvement, the market is projected to rank last for per-room value out of all the major markets in Canada in 2019, the same place the market had occupied in 2015.

Valuation Trends and Predictions:

New Brunswick Canada
Previous Year +11% (11 of 19) +9% (12 of 19)
Growth in 2017 +2% (14 of 19) +5% (12 of 19)
Growth in next 4 years -100% (7 of 19) -100% (2 of 19)

Change In Value For Market:

New Brunswick RevPar % Change

For more information, please contact:

Monique Rosszell, AACI, MRICS, ISHC
mrosszell@hvs.com
  • +1 416 686-2260 (w)