Canada -  Winnipeg

Overview:

As Manitoba is relatively unexposed to the energy sector, the decline in oil prices has not negatively affected the economy of Winnipeg to the same extent as other cities in the Canadian Prairies. In 2015, the Winnipeg lodging market experienced gains in both average rate and occupancy as a result of favourable economic conditions, stronger agricultural and manufacturing activity, and continued infrastructure growth. According to the Conference Board of Canada, in 2016, Winnipeg is projected to see GDP growth of 2.3%, which would be the strongest rate of growth since 2008. Moreover, RBC forecasts more general growth in the GDP of Manitoba at a rate of 1.9% in 2016 and 2.4% in 2017—the outlook for Winnipeg is thus generally positive.

The market-wide ADR is projected to remain stable at $122.19 between 2015 and 2016 as the large amount of new supply that entered the market from 2013 to 2015 (a 7.9% increase in the room count) is absorbed. With demand projected to be up 3.0%, the RevPAR is projected to reach $79.64 in 2016, a 2.7% increase from last year.

The per-room value of the Winnipeg lodging market is projected to grow another 5.4% in 2016 to $128,247 after having increased 5.2% in 2015 to $121,625. The growth in value seen in 2015 was in line with our previous projection of 5.1%.

Over the next four years, the room supply in the Winnipeg hotel market is projected to increase a further 3.0%, which represents a more modest pace of supply growth than the last few the years. As such, the performance of this market is expected to improve in this period. The Winnipeg hotel market is expected to go from having the ninth-highest per-room value in the country in 2015 to the seventh highest in 2019.

Valuation Trends and Predictions:

Winnipeg Canada
Previous Year +5% (13 of 19) +9% (12 of 19)
Growth in 2017 +7% (8 of 19) +5% (12 of 19)
Growth in next 3 years +14% (5 of 19) +8% (15 of 19)

Change In Value For Market:

Winnipeg RevPAR % Change

For more information, please contact:

Carrie Russell, AACI, MAI, RIBC, ISHC
CRussell@hvs.com
  • +1 604 988-9743 (w)
Monique Rosszell, AACI, MRICS, ISHC
mrosszell@hvs.com
  • +1 416 686-2260 (w)