Africa -  Indian Ocean - Seychelles

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Seychelles’ economy remains strong and has been growing steadily, thanks to the continued growth of its tourism sector. GDP grew by 3.6% last year and the IMF forecast a 3.4% growth this year. The archipelago of the Seychelles is known for its magnificent natural beauty and luxury: the country has some of the highest room rates in the tourism industry worldwide. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the travel and tourism industry in the Seychelles accounted for 26.4% of total GDP in 2017, making it the fifth highest in the world. The government strictly controls tourism development to protect and conserve the fragile ecosystem of the islands on which the sector depends heavily.

The Indian Ocean island nation plans to develop a “blue economy” and started in February last year by designating a third of its waters as protected areas, restricting nearly all human activity. The islands saw visitor numbers more than 3.5 times the resident population in 2018, an increase of 3% compared to 2017. Although the tourism authorities forecast an 8% growth in tourist arrivals in 2018, the cancellations of a few air routes, notably from China and the Middle East, brought this number down. However, we understand that the number of flights to the islands will increase in 2018/19. British Airways launched a direct flight from London in March 2018 and Edelweiss started a direct route from Zurich in September 2018. Air France resumed its direct flights to Mahe with its new long-haul airline, Joon. As a result of an increased airlift, the number of international arrivals is expected to increase significantly in the next few years.

The Four Seasons Desroches opened in March 2018. Jumeirah and Shangri-La have announced new projects in the archipelago as well as Club Med although nothing has been confirmed as yet. Although occupancies were quite stable in 2017 and 2018, average rates increased significantly leading to a 13.3% increase in REVPAR. Hotel values were up in line with REVPAR. Hotel values are expected to continue to increase in the next three years, boosted by a steady increase in average rates, thus profit.

The widespread impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has had an unprecedented impact on hotels and hotel values worldwide. Consequently, the latest HVI analysis may no longer reflect the most current measure of lodging industry strength or the hospitality investment market.

In each of our offices across the globe, we are working tirelessly to analyze the impact of recent events and provide timely insights to help you navigate these uncharted waters. Because it is unclear how long the pandemic will last or how long related restrictions will be in place, we are updating our analyses on a weekly basis using the most current data.

Additionally, examination of value trends in prior cycles can provide useful information. Historical patterns, together with an understanding of the market’s current expectations for the eventual recovery of the industry and its performance, can provide insights on the likely trajectory of decline and recovery for hotel values.

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For more information, please contact:

Rishabh Thapar, MRICS
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