For a comprehensive review of the Europe market, click below:
HVS In-Depth Europe Hotel Valuation Index:
2023
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Moscow is the largest city in Russia (and on the European continent) and, as such, has one of the largest economies in Europe, generating more than 20% of Russia’s GDP. It is the seat of power of the government and a major economic, cultural and scientific hub, all of which drive the city’s hotel demand. The city’s hotel market is primarily domestic and business-oriented, although before the war leisure demand was experiencing an increase.
In 2018, the FIFA World Cup (which took place between June and July of that year) helped the Moscow hotel market achieve an incredibly strong performance, with RevPAR growth of nearly 30% in euro terms and more than 40% in local currency. During June and July alone, the city saw RevPAR triple from 2017 levels. While performance levels naturally dropped from the 2018 World Cup peak, Moscow maintained impressive occupancy and average rates throughout 2019, with the positive experience international guests had in 2018 carrying over.
While GDP declined by only 3.1% in 2020, owing to the pandemic, the hospitality industry was hit hard. Demand was half of 2019 levels and average rates dropped by more than 15% (local currency). In 2021, Moscow hotels performed extremely well relative to the rest of Europe and, at nearly 60%, achieved the strongest occupancy of all major markets reviewed for the HVI. Following the impact that the pandemic had on the economy, Russia was showing healthy recovery until February 2022 when the war with Ukraine commenced. While international sanctions on the country put a halt to most international visitation, domestic demand managed to support volume levels in 2022, and rate returned to pre-pandemic levels in euro terms.
The Moscow pipeline shows 13 new developments, totalling 2,500 rooms, expected to come to market within the next five years. Some of the most noticeable ones include the 165-room Fairmont Moscow Mayakovskaya, expected to open in April 2023, the 65-room Mandarin Oriental Moscow (April 2023), the 118-room MGallery by Sofitel Moscow Zubovskaya (January 2024), the 154-room Raffles Moscow Zaryadye (January 2024), and the 150-room Novotel Moscow Comcity (September 2024). Many brands have left Russia since the start of the war, and it is therefore likely that changes to the branded proposed hotels might happen by the time they become operational.
There have been relatively few transactions in the past few years, and the prices of most of the properties that have transacted tend to be either undisclosed or rumoured. The only notable disclosed transaction in 2021 was the 150-room Hotel Peking, which traded for approximately €53.5 million (€357,000 per key). In 2022, the 75-room Marco Polo Presnya traded for a reported €33.5 million in May. A March 2023 transaction involved Russian investment firm Cosmos Hotel Group completing the acquisition of a number of Russian companies that owned ten hotels with 4,078 rooms across four Russian cities, for €200 million (€49,000 per room). This reflects the special circumstances surrounding the few occurring sales, which would not be a fair reflection of a fully functioning investment environment. Owing to the circumstances mentioned earlier, 2022 values decreased by almost a third in 2022 in euro terms, and by more than 40% in local currency.
The widespread impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has had an unprecedented impact on hotels and hotel values worldwide.
Consequently, the latest HVI analysis may no longer reflect the most current measure of lodging industry strength or the
hospitality investment market.
In each of our offices across the globe, we are working tirelessly to analyze the impact of recent events and provide timely
insights to help you navigate these uncharted waters. Because it is unclear how long the pandemic will last or how long related
restrictions will be in place, we are updating our analyses on a weekly basis using the most current data.
Additionally, examination of value trends in prior cycles can provide useful information. Historical patterns, together with
an understanding of the market’s current expectations for the eventual recovery of the industry and its performance, can provide
insights on the likely trajectory of decline and recovery for hotel values.
For the Latest Information and Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19Click Here
If you’d like to speak to someone personally to review details of our most current analysis, please don’t hesitate to contact
us directly.
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