The San Francisco Bay Area was once one of the strongest lodging markets in the United States, bolstered by its robust tech- and venture-capital-driven economy, its status as a top-tier international travel destination, and its high barriers to entry. Moreover, convention activity reached a record level in 2019. However, the pandemic transformed San Francisco more than any other major U.S. market. Asian-based tourist travel diminished greatly and has yet to rebound, and heightened office vacancies remain, as many companies have embraced hybrid work models. The retail industry has been affected as a result, and layoffs and hiring freezes in early 2023 contributed to the delayed economic recovery. A healthy convention schedule supported an occupancy increase in 2023, but the booking pace for 2024 was not as favorable. In 2023, occupancy remained in the mid-60.0% range, roughly 20 points below pre-pandemic levels, while ADR surpassed the $220 mark (roughly $30 below the 2019 level). Occupancy remained relatively stable in 2024, and ADR declined. The long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic given San Francisco’s diverse economy and the expected continued recovery of international travel. Moreover, the San Francisco Bay Area will host the NBA All-Star Game in February 2025, Super Bowl LX in February 2026, and select games of the FIFA World Cup in June/July 2026.

* Although the HVI cannot tell you what a particular hotel is worth, it does provide excellent “big picture” data, indicating which market areas are experiencing positive trends, and thus may present good investment opportunities. The HVI for the U.S. is a measure of the strength of the lodging industry as a whole and, specifically, the hospitality investment market. The HVI for the various identified markets can provide a basis to evaluate and compare different geographic regions. For more insight on the limitations and applicability of the HVI, please read the message on the HVI home page by clicking on the graphic at the top of this page.

ADR, Demand, Occupancy, RevPAR, and Supply Projections:

Change In Value For Market:

San Francisco - San Mateo RevPAR Change

San Francisco - San Mateo RevPAR

For more information, please contact:

John Berean Managing Director, Hawaii and Northern California Region Leader Valuation, Market & Feasibility Consulting [email protected] +1 281 381-3456 (w)