United States -  San Francisco - San Mateo

The San Francisco Bay Area was once one of the strongest lodging markets in the United States, bolstered by its robust tech- and venture-capital-driven economy, its status as a top-tier international travel destination, and its high barriers to entry. Moreover, convention activity reached a record level in 2019. The pandemic transformed the San Francisco market more than any other major U.S. market. Asian-based tourist travel diminished greatly and has yet to rebound, and heightened office vacancies remain as the population embraces hybrid work models. The retail industry has been affected as a result, and layoffs and hiring freezes in early 2023 contributed to the delayed economic recovery. A healthy convention schedule supported an occupancy increase in 2023, but the booking pace for 2024 is not as favorable. In 2023, occupancy remained in the mid-60.0% range, roughly 20 points below pre-pandemic levels. ADR surpassed the $220 mark, which is roughly $30 lower than the 2019 level. While 2024 is expected to be a soft convention year, the longer-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic given San Francisco’s diverse economy and the expected continued recovery of international travel. Moreover, the San Francisco Bay Area will host Super Bowl LX in 2026, and it is one of 16 North American destinations that will host the FIFA World Cup in 2026.

* Although the HVI cannot tell you what a particular hotel is worth, it does provide excellent “big picture” data, indicating which market areas are experiencing positive trends, and thus may present good investment opportunities. The HVI for the U.S. is a measure of the strength of the lodging industry as a whole and, specifically, the hospitality investment market. The HVI for the various identified markets can provide a basis to evaluate and compare different geographic regions. For more insight on the limitations and applicability of the HVI, please read the message on the HVI home page by clicking on the graphic at the top of this page.

Change In Value For Market:

Significant Value Increase: Greater than +10%
Moderate Value Increase: Between +3% and +10%
Stable Values: Between -3% and +3%
Moderate Value Decline: Between -3% and -10%
Significant Value Decline: More than -10%

For more information, please contact:

John Berean
Senior Vice President, Hawaii and Northern California Region Leader
Valuation, Market & Feasibility Consulting
[email protected]
  • +1 281 381-3456 (w)