Hotel demand in the St. Louis area has historically been supported by a diverse economy anchored by strong healthcare, education, and government sectors. Market occupancy declined in the early 2000s because of recessionary influences. In the mid-2000s, a rebound in demand fostered increases in ADR; however, this trend was accompanied by significant growth in supply, preventing occupancy from rising beyond 60.0%. Occupancy levels dropped to the mid-50s during the Great Recession, and ADR declined as well. Demand and occupancy levels recovered from 2010 through 2015, supported by the strengthening economy and a decrease in hotel supply, as a number of older, obsolete properties were closed during that period. These factors supported healthy ADR growth, and the market experienced five consecutive years of RevPAR growth over 5.0%. In 2016 and 2017, the pace of RevPAR growth slowed as supply levels began to increase. In 2018, occupancy fell below 65.0% and RevPAR dipped slightly; nevertheless, occupancy stabilized in 2019, as steadily increasing demand kept pace with supply growth. A stronger convention calendar provided a foundation for greater pricing power, resulting in modest ADR and RevPAR growth in 2019.
Hotel demand plummeted in March 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, annual RevPAR in 2020 was less than half of the 2019 level. The market entered a recovery phase in 2021, fueled by a surge of leisure travel and the re-emergence of commercial demand, as well as the return of conventions and major events. Demand continued to improve throughout 2022, as corporate employees gradually returned to offices and attendance at large conventions and events increased. Rising inflation and the shift in leisure and business travel patterns allowed hoteliers to aggressively exercise pricing power; thus, ADR surpassed the pre-pandemic high by over 10.0% in 2022. Although occupancy continued to trail pre-pandemic performance, RevPAR for 2022 nearly reached the 2019 level. Through mid-year 2023, both occupancy and ADR increased, supported by the continuing recovery of corporate travel and strong leisure demand. Going forward, further occupancy recovery should be supported by the ongoing renovation/expansion of the convention center, which is planned for completion in 2024. Overall, the diversity of employment sectors, positive convention outlook, and popular regional tourism attractions bode well for the market outlook.
* Although the HVI cannot tell you what a particular hotel is worth, it does provide excellent “big picture” data, indicating which market areas are experiencing positive trends, and thus may present good investment opportunities. The HVI for the U.S. is a measure of the strength of the lodging industry as a whole and, specifically, the hospitality investment market. The HVI for the various identified markets can provide a basis to evaluate and compare different geographic regions. For more insight on the limitations and applicability of the HVI, please read the message on the HVI home page by clicking on the graphic at the top of this page.
The widespread impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has had an unprecedented impact on hotels and hotel values worldwide.
Consequently, the latest HVI analysis may no longer reflect the most current measure of lodging industry strength or the
hospitality investment market.
In each of our offices across the globe, we are working tirelessly to analyze the impact of recent events and provide timely
insights to help you navigate these uncharted waters. Because it is unclear how long the pandemic will last or how long related
restrictions will be in place, we are updating our analyses on a weekly basis using the most current data.
Additionally, examination of value trends in prior cycles can provide useful information. Historical patterns, together with
an understanding of the market’s current expectations for the eventual recovery of the industry and its performance, can provide
insights on the likely trajectory of decline and recovery for hotel values.
For the Latest Information and Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19Click Here
If you’d like to speak to someone personally to review details of our most current analysis, please don’t hesitate to contact
us directly.
ADR, Demand, Occupancy, RevPAR, and Supply Projections:
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ADR Change
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Market Demand Change
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Hotel Occupancy Increase/Decrease
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RevPAR Change
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0.0%
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0.0%
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0.0%
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Market Supply Growth
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Change In Value For Market:
Legend
Significant Value Increase:
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Greater than +10%
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Moderate Value Increase:
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Between +3% and +10%
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Stable Values:
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Between -3% and +3%
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Moderate Value Decline:
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Between -3% and -10%
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Significant Value Decline:
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More than -10%
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St. Louis RevPAR
Year |
RevPAR |
2007 |
$51.58
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2008 |
$50.56
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2009 |
$44.37
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2010 |
$46.03
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2011 |
$48.92
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2012 |
$52.17
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2013 |
$55.94
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2014 |
$61.57
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2015 |
$64.71
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2016 |
$66.52
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2017 |
$68.30
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2018 |
$69.80
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2019 |
$70.47
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2020 |
$72.24
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2021 |
$
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2022 |
$
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2023 (f) |
$
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2024 (f) |
$
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2025 (f) |
$
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